A Note on COVID-19 Diagnosis Number Prediction Model in China (preprint)

Objective: In December 2019, pneumonia infected with the novel coronavirus burst in Wuhan, China. We aimed to use a mathematical model to predict number of diagnosed patients in future to ease anxiety on the emergent situation. Methods: According to all diagnosis number from WHO website and combining with the transmission mode of infectious diseases, the mathematical model was fitted to predict future trend of outbreak. Our model was based on the epidemic situation in China, which could provide referential significance for disease prediction in other countries, and provide clues for prevention and intervention of relevant health authorities. In this retrospective, all diagnosis number from Jan 21 to Feb 10, 2020 reported from China was included and downloaded from WHO website. We develop a simple but accurate formula to predict the next day diagnosis number: ，where N i is the total diagnosed patient till the i th day, and was estimated as 0.904 at Feb 10. Results: Based on this model, it is predicted that the rate of disease infection will decrease exponentially. The total number of infected people is limited; thus, the disease will have limited impact. However, new diagnosis will last to end of March. Conclusions: Through the establishment of our model, we can better predict the trend of the epidemic in China.

A Note on COVID-19 Diagnosis Number Prediction Model in China (preprint)

In December 2019, pneumonia infected with the novel coronavirus burst in Wuhan, China. We aimed to use a mathematical model to predict number of diagnosed patients in future to ease anxiety on the emergent situation. Our model was based on the epidemic situation in China, which could provide referential significance for disease prediction in other countries, and provide clues for prevention and intervention of relevant health authorities. In this retrospective, all diagnosis number from Jan 21 to Feb 10, 2020 reported from China was included and downloaded from WHO website. We develop a simple but accurate formula to predict the next day diagnosis number: N_i/N_(i-1) =〖(N_(i-1)/N_(i-2) )〗^α，where Ni is the total diagnosed patient till the ith day, and α was estimated as 0.904 at Feb 10. Based on this model, it is predicted that the rate of disease infection will decrease exponentially. The total number of infected people is limited; thus, the disease will have limited impact. However, new diagnosis will last to end of March. Through the establishment of our model, we can better predict the trend of the epidemic in China.

COVID-19 Epidemic Outside China: 34 Founders and Exponential Growth (preprint)

Background: In December 2019, pneumonia infected with a novel coronavirus burst in Wuhan, China. Now the situation is almost controlled in China but is worse outside China. We aimed to build a mathematical model to capture the global trend of epidemics outside China. Methods: In this retrospective, outside-China diagnosis number reported from Jan 21 to Feb 28, 2020 was downloaded from WHO website. We develop a simple regression model on these numbers: log10 (Nt+34)=0.0515*t+2.075 where Nt is the total diagnosed patient till the ith day, t=1 at Feb 1. Findings: Based on this model, we estimate that there have been about 34 unobserved founder patients at the beginning of spread outside China. The global trend is approximately exponential, with the rate of 10 folds every 19 days.